AL Central Preview 2006

White Sox could head back to World Series

2006 Predicted order of finish: AL Central

1. White Sox
2. Tigers
3. Indians
4. Twins
5. Royals
 

 

Chicago White Sox

 

2005 Runs Scored (AL Rank): 741 (9th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (AL Rank): 645 (3rd)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (AL Rank): 3.75 (T-1st)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 3.23 (2nd)

General manager Kenny Williams avoided a pitfall common to reigning champs — relying too much on the status quo. Instead of resting on his laurels, Williams was among the most active executives this winter. You can argue with some of the decisions and the dollar figures involved, but the upshot is that the Sox are poised to repeat in what should be baseball's toughest division in 2006.

The rotation will be among the game's best, and they have depth with the addition of Javier Vazquez (although his fly-balling ways may not serve him well in U.S. Cellular). The bullpen, armed with hurlers like Bobby Jenks, Dustin Hermanson, Neal Cotts, Brandon McCarthy and Cliff Politte, will be among the game's best.

 

With the return of core hitters, such as Jermaine Dye, the White Sox are primed to win the AL Central again in 2006. (Jed Jacobsohn / Getty Images)

On offense, they still have core hitters like Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, and Jim Thome gives them pop from the DH spot (though Ozzie Guillen should unfailingly sit him against lefties). Rookie Brian Anderson, who should win the center field job, will be a capable hitter immediately, and bench contributors Rob Mackowiak, Ben Grieve and Pablo Ozuna constitute a solid reserve corps.

Overall, it's a balanced lineup, a solid team defense (albeit one lessened by the departure of Aaron Rowand), an exceptional rotation and a strong bullpen. In other words, a defense of their World Series title is quite possible.

 

Detroit Tigers

 

2005 Runs Scored (AL Rank): 723 (11th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (AL Rank): 787 (8th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (AL Rank): 4.68 (9th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 3.81 (T-7th)

Offensively, the Tigers are in the rare position of having a shot at being above average at every single position. There are certainly a number of health-related "X" factors to be considered (Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen need to stay off the DL), and there's the matter of sorting out the Dmitri Young-Chris Shelton-Carlos Pena-Craig Monroe first base/DH/left field bottleneck, but the Tigers are nevertheless poised (crouched?) to have one of the best offenses in the game.

The run-prevention front, however, isn't quite as strong. It won't be an awful unit by any means, but it will be what prevents the Tigers from seriously challenging the White Sox. Kenny Rogers is in for a regression (as is closer Todd Jones), but Jeremy Bonderman should take a modest step forward in his journey toward ace-dom. Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson could both hang league-average ERAs or thereabouts, and rookie Justin Verlander — the best right-handed pitching prospect in the game — should give the Tigers quality innings from the five hole.

As for the bullpen, Jones, as mentioned, is in for a serious regression (Jones' 2005 ERA: 2.10; Jones' 2002-04 ERA: 5.21), and the setup corps lacks depth. The key will be for manager Jim Leyland to give the high-leverage innings, as often as possible, to Fernando Rodney and Jamie Walker. Deploying prospect Joel Zumaya as a reliever is also highly advisable.

The defense could be adequate. Carlos Guillen's balky knees hinder his range at short, but Placido Polanco is a Gold Glove-caliber defender at second. Ditto for Carlos Pena at first. Magglio Ordonez won't offer much in right, but the remaining positions will be solid to above-average. Overall, Detroit isn't in the White Sox's class, but they should be the AL's dark horse team in 2006.

 

Cleveland Indians

 

2005 Runs Scored (AL Rank): 790 (4th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (AL Rank): 642 (1st)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (AL Rank): 3.96 (5th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 2.80 (1st)

The "it" team for 2006 is probably headed for a third-place finish. The rotation will miss reigning AL ERA champ Kevin Millwood, and the bullpen was set to come back to earth even before they lost Bobby Howry, Arthur Rhodes and David Riske (combined 2005 numbers: 189 innings, 2.24 ERA). That's significant because, as you can see from the above rankings, the bullpen was Cleveland's most pronounced strength in 2005.

 

Travis Hafner is a top-tier hitter, but his bat doesn't make the Tribe a "great" team. (Andy Lyons / Getty Images)

Elsewhere, the Indians will suffer from inadequate production from the outfield corners (especially if Todd Hollandsworth is used as anything more than a fourth outfielder), and they'll suffer if they don't take the third-base job from Aaron Boone and give it to Andy Marte in a hurry. Jhonny Peralta will be in for a low-grade regression, and Ronnie Belliard's pattern of decline will continue.

This isn't to say the Indians are about to come hurtling back from the firmament: they'll still be a quality team. Grady Sizemore will continue to make strides, Travis Hafner will again be a top-tier hitter, and Eduardo Perez will be a useful lefty killer off the bench. The rotation will be a solid unit from top to bottom, but it lacks a real ace. The Tribe's a good team — not a great one. It takes a great team to win a division this tough.

 

Minnesota Twins

 

2005 Runs Scored (AL Rank): 688 (14th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (AL Rank): 662 (5th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (AL Rank): 3.93 (4th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 3.24 (3rd)

Expect more of the same from the Twins in 2006 — tremendous rotation, strong bullpen, weak offense. As you can see, Minnesota had the worst offense in the AL last season. After correcting for the presence of the DH, they had the worst offense in all of baseball. This season, it'll be better, but it'll still be a liability. Justin Morneau, who endured a bizarre and seemingly endless string of injuries last season, will bounce back in a major way, and Luis Castillo will provide a modest upgrade over what the Twins got last season from their second basemen.

Also, Rondell White will produce adequate numbers from the DH spot, but there's a serious risk of giving far too many plate appearances to Tony Batista. They won't finish last in runs again, but this is not a playoff-worthy offense overall.

The rotation, on the other hand, will be exceptional. Johan Santana should've won the AL Cy Young last season, and he'll be just as good in 2006. Brad Radke and Carlos Silva will once again show exceptional command, and rookie Francisco Liriano — the best pitching prospect in baseball — has a shot to crack the back of the rotation. The front of the bullpen will be strong, and the defense will be solid. Consider them the best fourth-place team in baseball, if that's any consolation to Minnesota partisans.

 

Kansas City Royals

 

2005 Runs Scored (AL Rank): 701 (12th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (AL Rank): 935 (13th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (AL Rank): 5.80 (14th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 4.88 (12th)

The Royals can't possibly be any worse this season. There's no scenario under which they can contend, but bringing in quality-to-tolerable vets like Reggie Sanders, Mark Grudzielanek, Scott Elarton and Mark Redman means the Royals will be modestly improved. Because of the imbalanced schedule, they'll take a beating in the division and will likely finish with the worst record in the AL.

The Zach Greinke kafuffle has been garnering headlines, but, honestly, guys with fly-ball tendencies, low strikeout rates and dubious makeup don't often have success at the highest level. If you're a Royals fan, pay attention to the development of Alex Gordon and Billy Butler in the minors. Don't waste your time with the big league club.