AL West Preview 2006

A's can take AL West ... if they stay healthy

2006 Predicted order of finish: AL West

1. A's
2. Angels
3. Rangers
4.Mariners

 

Oakland A's

 

2005 runs scored (AL Rank): 772 (6th)

 

2005 runs allowed (AL Rank): 658 (4th)

 

2005 starters' ERA (AL Rank): 3.82 (3rd)

 

2005 bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 3.39 (4th)

For the A's to live up to this prediction, they must stay healthy. To a degree, that's the case for any division favorite, but it goes double for Oakland. Last season, ace Rich Harden spent more than a month on the disabled list, and shortstop Bobby Crosby was on the DL for 76 days. Also, Eric Chavez's production was dampened by a sore shoulder, and, of course, the chronically gimpy Frank Thomas is now in the fold. If the A's do win the West, their MVP may well be the training staff.

Anyhow, as you can see the A's had a balanced club last season, but the offense could use some improvement. They'll get that if Thomas, Crosby and Milton Bradley stay generally healthy. Count on skills growth from Nick Swisher and Mark Ellis, and Chavez should improve upon his 2005 levels of production. The A's could use a lefty bat off the bench, but there's plenty of time to add such a minor spare part.

The rotation will once again be a strength. If Harden can work, say, 215 innings or more, he'll be the arguable favorite to win the AL Cy Young. Barry Zito remains an upper-tier starter, Esteban Loaiza will provide Oakland with above-league average innings, and Dan Haren and Joe Blanton will continue to improve. Potentially, the A's have one of the best rotations in the game today.

The bullpen won't have a great deal of depth, but it will have an elite closer in Huston Street and two strong right-handed setup men in Justin Duchscherer and Kiko Calero. There's not much from the left side, but Oakland has a knack for scaring bullpen solutions on the fly.

 

If Barry Zito's Athletica can avoid last year's awful start, they should contend for the A.L. West title. (Otto Gruele / Getty Images)

Health permitting, the A's are your AL West champs for 2006.

 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

 

2005 runs scored (AL Rank): 761 (7th)

 

2005 runs allowed (AL Rank): 643 (3rd)

 

2005 starters' ERA (AL Rank): 3.75 (T-1st)

 

2005 bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 3.52 (5th)

As you can see, the Angels in 2005 were ferried to the playoffs mostly by their rotation. Since last year, however, they've lost Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd to free agency. In '05, that duo combined for 381 2/3 innings and a 3.49 ERA (in other words, an ERA better than the Angels' aggregate rotation ERA). So they'll be missed.

To replace those innings, the Angels will be banking on Jeff Weaver and a healthier Kelvim Escobar. Weaver's a nifty late-hour score, but his combined ERA over the last three seasons is 4.61. As for Escobar, he made three trips to the DL last season, so he's anything but a bankable source of innings going forward. That said, Ervin Santana gives the Angels a credible fallback option. On balance, expect the L.A. rotation to be somewhat diminished in 2006.

On the offensive side of things, the Angels have problems. Vlad Guerrero is an impact bat of the first order, but there's not much else. Garret Anderson is in decline, Darin Erstad hasn't had a good season in the current millennium, Bengie Molina (who had a solid year at the plate in 2005) is in Toronto, and Juan Rivera has platoon issues. On the upside, Casey Kotchman will finally get playing time, Chone Figgins will be reliable, and forgotten prospect Dallas McPherson might even have something to offer after a month or two at Triple-A.

The Angels defense should be modestly improved, what with Erstad going back to center, but there's no guarantee he'll be anything close to his otherworldly self of 2002 (one of the greatest defensive seasons in history by a center fielder). On the bullpen front, it'll be a solid unit, but the depth behind Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields is a bit suspect.

 

Texas Rangers

 

2005 runs scored (AL Rank): 865 (3rd)

 

2005 runs allowed (AL Rank): 858 (12th)

 

2005 starters' ERA (AL Rank): 5.04 (12th)

 

2005 bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 4.83 (12th)

The tendencies of Ameriquest Field make the Rangers offense look a little better than it really is and the Ranger pitching staff a little worse than it really is. Still and yet, pitching is the problem for Texas. Kevin Millwood, provided he keeps the ball on the ground as he generally did last season, will be solid, but keep in mind they're losing Kenny Rogers' contributions from a year ago (195.1 innings, 3.46 ERA). Elsewhere, once you adjust for park effects, they've downgraded by swapping out Chris Young for Adam Eaton. Getting Vicente Padilla for a player to be named was a low-grade steal (albeit not a terribly meaningful one), but the back of the rotation is as big of a mess as it's ever been.

As for the relief corps, Francisco Cordero is a quality closer, and Akinori Otsuka will be a passable right-handed setup man. Otherwise, they'll struggle once again.

Offensively, the Rangers will again be among the best in the AL in terms of runs scored. Expect a rebound year for Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira will continue his ascent to MVP levels, and Brad Wilkerson's fly-ball stroke will play quite well in Arlington. Shortstop Mike Young is among the game's best at his position, and Ian Kinsler should be a credible rookie keystoner. On the downside, the Rangers figure to get sub-optimal production from the outfield corners and DH Phil Nevin may not have much left.

The defense will benefit from replacing Alfonso Soriano with Kinsler, but Wilkerson is a 'tweener in center field.

If there's a surprise signing of Roger Clemens, this team could win the division. Failing that, they're a threat to finish second if they catch some breaks.

 

Seattle Mariners

 

2005 runs scored (AL Rank): 699 (13th)

 

2005 runs allowed (AL Rank): 751 (7th)

 

2005 starters' ERA (AL Rank): 4.91 (11th)

 

2005 bullpen ERA (AL Rank): 3.60 (6th)

The AL West isn't the best division in baseball, but it may be the most balanced. That's to say, there's not a genuinely awful team to be found. In the case of the M's, they'll probably wind up as the best last-place team in the game. You know, for what that's worth.

The reason to go see Seattle play, of course, is Felix Hernandez — the greatest pitching prospect the game has seen in a very long time. Keeping him healthy and limiting his workload will wisely be a priority for the organization in 2006. Otherwise, the rotation is brimming with unknown quantities. Will Jamie Moyer muster adequacy again? Can Jarrod Washburn stave off the regression that's waiting for him? Can Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro manage health and effectiveness? Other than King Felix and perhaps Moyer, the Mariner rotation figures to be problematic. Elsewhere on the run-prevention front, the Seattle bullpen and team defense should both be solid.

Offensively, Kenji Johjima has a shot at best offensive catcher in the AL, Richie Sexson will again be a consistent power source, Adrian Beltre will be above-the-mean at third, Ichiro will be a top-quartile hitter in right, and Raul Ibanez will get by in left. Young Jeremy Reed may show some progress at the plate, but the question is whether Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt can give the M's anything from the middle infield positions. Carl Everett as the regular DH? Meh.