NL East Preview 2006

Braves still the class of the NL East

2006 Predicted order of finish: NL East

1. Braves
2. Mets*
3. Phillies
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

(* - Predicted NL Wild-Card winner)

 

Atlanta Braves

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 769 (4th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 674 (5th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 3.65 (3rd)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 4.74 (12th)

The Braves, of course, have won 14 consecutive division titles, and, in doing so, have endured all sorts of personnel upheaval. So they're certainly no strangers to winning under a variety of circumstances.

Over the winter, the Braves lost All-Star shortstop Rafael Furcal to the Dodgers via free agency, and legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone took his alchemic powers to Baltimore. Furcal has been replaced by Edgar Renteria. Furcal is the better defender, but Renteria should be in for a bit of a rebound with the bat; and that means he should come close to approximating Furcal's level of plate production in 2005.

As for Mazzone, the effects are less certain. He's been on the job in Atlanta since 1990, so there's no doubt that others in the organization have become deeply familiar with his methods (which in part consist of having his pitchers throw more between starts). Roger McDowell steps into this most conspicuous of roles, but Mazzone's overall approach will likely still be very much with the Braves. It's a loss, to be sure, but part of Mazzone's apparent success was also manager Bobby Cox's historically deft instinct for pitching changes and John Schuerholz's proven track record for acquiring pitchers at just the right time.

On offense, Andruw Jones may see his astounding 2005 numbers regress just a bit, but he'll still be a top-tier performer. Chipper Jones is in his decline phase, but he'll still be good for a .400 OBP and something close to a .500 SLG. Brian McCann will see a full season behind the plate, and he should make an immediate impact. An excellent power prospect, McCann, if he plays a full season, could tally 50 extra-base hits and perhaps be the best offensive catcher in the National League. He'll certainly be an upgrade over Johnny Estrada, who was traded to Arizona during the off-season.

Phenom Jeff Francoeur will get a full season of action in right, and while he'll have some OBP issues for a while, the power will be there right away. Considering that Brave right fielders hit a combined .255 AVG/.310 OBP/.443 SLG last year, a full season of Francoeur will constitute a meaningful upgrade. Throwing in a strong Ryan Langerhans/Matt Diaz platoon in left and the presence of Wilson Betemit, arguably the best utility infielder in baseball, will also help.

The rotation will be fronted by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, who make for the best non-Cubs one-two punch in the NL. Smoltz, at his age and with his recent history of health concerns, is no sure bet, but that's what we all said going into last season. John Thomson, Jorge Sosa and Horacio Ramirez shore up the back end, and if the unexpected happens, Kyle Davies or Anthony Lerew can step in.

As for the bullpen, it was a weakness last season, and the Braves still managed to notch 90 wins. The 2006 relief corps won't have much depth, but Chris Reitsma is a reliable arm, Davies could see extended duty in the pen, Joey Devine is primed to take a step forward, and Blaine Boyer's injured shoulder is reportedly much improved.

It all adds up to a 15th straight division crown.

 

New York Mets

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 722 (7th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 648 (3rd)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 3.71 (4th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 3.92 (6th)

General manager Omar Minaya was especially active this winter. Since the World Series, he's acquired performers like Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, Billy Wagner and Xavier Nady and cut bait talents like Mike Cameron, Mike Piazza, Kris Benson, Jae Seo and Braden Looper.

 

Mets fans are now experiencing what Red Sox fans went through for years: a Pedro Martinez with health issues going into spring training. (Rich Piling/MLB / Getty Images)

Last season, Met first basemen were fronted by the woeful Doug Mientkiewicz. By contrast, Delgado — despite playing half his games in a notable pitcher's park — authored a respectable batting line. Credit Minaya for filling a glaring hole and filling it boldly. Delgado's presence, in light of the ciphers he's replacing, will be a serious boon to the Mets' offense.

In center, Carlos Beltran, now that he's recovered from the hamstring injury that dampened his numbers last season, should rebound, and Cliff Floyd, provided he stays healthy, should put up credible numbers once again in left. They'll miss Cameron's pop and defense in right, but Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz should be useful in a time-sharing arrangement. Also, bet on skills growth from David Wright, who's probably two years away from contending for the MVP.

Behind the plate, Lo Duca is certainly a defensive upgrade over Piazza, but his bat withers in comparison (yes, even in comparison to decline-phase Piazza). The Mets would also do well to rest Lo Duca regularly during the early months of the season so that he doesn't endure his annual stretch-drive fade (since 2003, Lo Duca has hit a grisly .197 AVG/.246 OBP/.289 SLG).

If there's a concern in Queens, it's the rotation. Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine return, but they'll miss Benson's league-average innings, and Seo was primed to step forward in 2006. It's vital that the Mets stick Aaron Heilman in the rotation and leave him there for the entire season. Without him, the back end of the starting five will be too suspect.

On the bullpen front, Wagner, if healthy, is a dominant, shutdown closer of the first order. However, the setup corps, particularly from the right side, is lacking.

The Mets don't have the balanced attack that the Braves have, but they will pass Wild Card muster and return to the postseason for the first time since they won the pennant in 2000.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 807 (2nd)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 726 (8th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 4.20 (9th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 4.24 (10th)

The Phillies have been perhaps the most disappointing team in baseball over the last half-decade or so. They're annually ballyhooed as playoff contenders, but the team hasn't made the postseason since 1993. They've become the quintessential 87-win, close-but-no-cigar team, and their window is closing.

Last season, the Phils ranked second in the league in runs scored, but that was partly because of the run-inducing nature of Citizens' Bank Park. They'll get a full season from Ryan Howard, which will help matters, and while Bobby Abreu may be beginning his decline, he'll still be a strong performer in 2006. Pat Burrell — as much as you can project what Pat Burrell will do — should be adequate in left, and Aaron Rowand will give Philly stability and great defense in center.

Chase Utley has an All-Star-caliber bat at second, and Jimmy Rollins provides exceptional glovework at short. However, there are some problem areas in the lineup. David Bell was awful last season, and Mike Lieberthal still can't hit right-handed pitching. If Bell continues to flounder, manager Charlie Manuel must not hesitate to give Abraham Nunez or Alex Gonzalez an extended look. Bell's awful numbers cost the Phillies the Wild Card last season, and he's earned no leeway going forward.

The rotation ranges from good (Brett Myers) to solid (Jon Lieber) to awful (Ryan Franklin). You'd think a team that pawned off Vicente Padilla for nothing more than a player to be named later would have a strong collection of starters, but that's not the case.

The bullpen will once again be a problem. New closer, Tom Gordon, should do fine, but he's a step down from Wagner. As for the middlemen, the Phillies have nothing from the right side, and they'll blow more than their share of leads. Overall, solid lineup, good defense up the middle, sub-par rotation, weak bullpen; they're simply not a playoff team.

 

Washington Nationals

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 639 (16th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 673 (4th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 4.03 (7th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 3.55 (3rd)

The Nats have a bottleneck at second, and it's a situation that could get unsavory in a hurry. Neither Jose Vidro or Alfonso Soriano is an optimal defender, but both have good pop by middle-infield standards. Given Soriano's refusal to move to the outfield, GM Jim Bowden may be forced to deal one of them before spring training ends.

The offense will be among the NL's worst, particularly in terms of power, and the back of the rotation — particularly now that Brian Lawrence is out until at least mid-season — could be a trouble spot.

 

Frank Robinson's Nats were respectable in their first year in D.C. How will Year 2 pan out?

Contention may not be in the cards for D.C., but there are still a couple of reasons to go see a Nats game. One is the portly, rubber-armed right-hander Livan Hernandez. He's a top-tier pitcher, logs obscene pitch counts every now and then, handles the bat quite well, is full of vigor on the mound, and, best of all, he's fat. Any Hernandez start is worth your while.

The other reason is rookie Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman has good power potential (although his numbers will be ramped down by pitcher-friendly RFK) and an otherworldly glove at the hot corner. Expect a long line of jaw-dropping plays at third this season, and he's certainly on the short-list for NL Rookie of the Year.

 

Florida Marlins

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 717 (8th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 732 (10th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 3.81 (5th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 4.95 (15th)

The Marlins team you'll see in 2006 will be the residue of owner Jeffrey Loria's attempt to extort a ballpark from the taxpayers of South Florida. As we know from his saboteur act in Montreal, Loria is a jack@!# of long standing, and his latest money grab shouldn't surprise anyone.

In any event, Loria's punitive sell-off saw franchise linchpins like Delgado, Lo Duca, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Todd Jones, Luis Castillo, Alex Gonzalez and Juan Encarnacion traded away or allowed to sign elsewhere. What's left? Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera, Jeremy Hermida and an intriguing assemblage of young arms.

The Marlins, if they properly cultivate those arms, could be consequential again in three or four years; but in the here and now, they're a last place team, especially in the balanced NL East. Watch Willis' win total crater, watch Cabrera take the next step toward superstardom, and see whether Hermida can make a charge at drawing 100 walks in his first full season.

On the whole, the Marlins figure to get woeful production from a number of positions, and the rotation members behind Willis are either dubious or disconcertingly raw. The bullpen was the worst in the NL last season, and now they're without Todd Jones and his 2.10 ERA. The intrigue in South Florida will be whether this team can avoid losing 100 games.