NL West Preview 2006

Staying injury-free is key

2006 Predicted order of finish: NL West

1. Dodgers
2. Padres
3. Giants
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 685 (12th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 755 (12th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 4.36 (10th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 4.42 (11th)

In 2005, Dodger players made 22 trips to the disabled list, and among those players were core performers like Eric Gagne, J.D. Drew, Milton Bradley, Odalis Perez, Jeff Kent, Brad Penny, Jayson Werth, Jose Valentin, Cesar Izturis, Ricky Ledee and Wilson Alvarez. Certainly, flawed personnel decisions are partly to blame, but there's also plain old bad luck at work. The Dodgers are bound to be healthier in 2006, and that's mostly why they'll prevail in baseball's weakest division.

As you can see above, the Dodgers were equally inept at scoring and preventing runs last season. Things figure to be better on both counts in 2006. GM Ned Colletti signed Rafael Furcal, perhaps the best all-around shortstop in the NL, to a sensible contract, and Nomar Garciaparra fills the hole at first (with Hee Seop Choi still in tow). Bill Mueller isn't the ideal every-day third baseman these days, but considering that Dodger third sackers combined to hit a rather meager .260 AVG/.344 OBP/.378 SLG last season, Mueller should provide an upgrade.

The outfield, provided Drew stays reasonably healthy (manifestly not a safe assumption), should be solid offensively, and Dioner Navarro can't help but out-hit Dodger catchers from a year ago. Also, in Choi, Ricky Ledee and Olmedo Saenz, L.A. has a useful corps of reserve bats.

On the rotation front, Brad Penny and Odalis Perez are both healthy this spring, and Jae Seo, who was plucked from the Mets over the winter, is potentially one of the best fifth starters in the game. As far as the bullpen goes, Gagne is progressing nicely in his recovery from elbow surgery; Danys Baez should be a highly useful setup man, and Yhency Brazoban is a solid bounce-back candidate. The team defense won't be especially strong (other than Furcal), but it's not a grave liability.

Overall, the Dodgers won't be good enough to win any other division in the game, but fortunately for them, they toil in the down-cycled NL West.

 

San Diego Padres

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 684 (13th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 726 (8th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 4.49 (11th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 3.49 (2nd)

Last season, the Padres made mixed history by becoming the worst team (82-80) ever to make the postseason. This season, they'll be very much in contention once again because, after all, this is the NL West.

GM Kevin Towers had a strong off-season, pilfering Mike Cameron from the Mets, re-signing Brian Giles to a bargain contract and snagging the underrated Chris Young from Texas. However, it's not going to be enough.

The rotation behind Jake Peavy is suspect. Josh Barfield, Vinny Castilla, Ryan Klesko and Dave Roberts may not be offensively adequate by the standards of their positions, and the bullpen has been thinned since last season. A healthy Khalil Greene will help, but there's just not enough offense here. If the Dodgers run up against 2005-style health concerns, the Padres will win the division, but otherwise they're out of luck.

 

San Francisco Giants

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 649 (15th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 745 (11th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 4.52 (12th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 3.98 (7th)

There's no mystery here: the Giants' fortunes depend entirely upon how much and how often inveterate cheater Barry Bonds is able to play.

Without him, they're a menagerie of mid-grade talents and dubious once-very good performers. In other words, San Fran would be a last-place club in the AL West; and in the AL Central, they'd finish ahead of only the Royals. Divisional straits as they are, however, they're certifiable contenders. The Dodgers and Padres are both roundly better teams, but if the injury genie favors the Giants over the two aforementioned clubs, San Fran could hobble in to the postseason.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 696 (10th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 856 (13th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 4.58 (13th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 5.40 (16th)

The Snakes' days of losing are numbered. Consider their astounding collection of pre-arbitration eligible talent: Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Dustin Nippert, Garret Mock, Carlos Gonzalez, Miguel Montero and others. To boot, they now have a highly capable front office in place.

Anyhow, in the here and now, the D-backs will do Colorado one better, and Brandon Webb might have a big season now that he has Orlando Hudson fetching balls behind him. On the whole, however, Arizona will be a bottom-tier team. But not for long. Beginning circa 2007, they'll dominate the NL West for years to come.

 

Colorado Rockies

 

2005 Runs Scored (NL Rank): 740 (5th)

 

2005 Runs Allowed (NL Rank): 862 (15th)

 

2005 Starters' ERA (NL Rank): 5.30 (15th)

 

2005 Bullpen ERA (NL Rank): 4.80 (14th)

The Rockies, of course, play half their games on Planet Coors, the best hitter's environment in the annals of the game. In light of that fact, it's interesting to observe that never before have the Rockies ranked as low as fifth in the NL in runs scored. So the 2005 model was the worst Colorado offensive attack in franchise history. In other words, it's an entirely new way of meeting with failure.

If last-place finishes haven't become customary for Colorado fans, then vacillating front-office visions should be old hat. Dan O'Dowd has tried everything under the sun, and the Rox still haven't made the postseason in more than a decade. Baseball played at a mile above sea level presents unique challenges that analysts, fans or executives can't appreciate; and there's no sign that that's about to change. If you're a Rocky partisan, pull for Ian Stewart and Troy Tulowitzki to continue flashing skills; don't sweat the major league club because they still haven't figured anything out.