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1. Miami
Heat |
|
Projected finish: 51-31 |
 2006-07
theme: Repeat. Save for injuries, anything
that happens in the regular season doesn't
really matter. It's all about the playoffs
and defending their title. |
| Early forecast:
Miami opens the season hosting Chicago in
what many feel is a conference finals
preview. The game will be a good barometer
for where the veterans are, especially Gary
Payton, who will be counted on to start and
log big minutes while Jason Williams (knee
surgery) mends. The Heat are home for six of
their first eight. |
| Haunting reality:
The Heat are in the precarious position of
counting on players who are going to have
their aches and pains. The team needs to
pace itself for the postseason and avoid
significant injury. It's a fairly safe bet
that Miami won't feature the league's best
record. |
| Saving grace:
There won't be any holding back for Dwyane
Wade, keeping the Heat worth the price of
admission. |
| X-factor: Does
O'Neal stay content in his secondary role?
He could surprise everyone and start
dominating like he once used to, if only
just to show he still has it in him. O'Neal
is not only intensely proud, but also prone
to do the unexpected. |
 |
|
Gary Payton |
Likely rotation: The
team was still trying to find a dependable
backup for Payton late in training camp, but
was bolstered by news Williams was ahead of
schedule in his comeback. Wade handles the
two, with Jason Kapono and Dorell Wright
getting spot minutes. Antoine Walker, James
Posey and Udonis Haslem return as the
primary forwards, though Wayne Simien will
probably see more action than he did as a
rookie. O'Neal and veteran Alonzo Mourning
are the fives. |
| Four-casting:
Mourning will continue being a medical
marvel, seemingly getting better in every
year since his unexpected return. O'Neal and
Wade will be voted in as All-Star starters.
The Heat will find a way to bring in one
more piece at the trade deadline. Riley will
come up with some innovative motivational
ploy to aid his team's repeat bid. |
| Coach-speak:
"While I had a lot of plans this summer with
family activities and travel, the decision
was forever on my mind. I knew early that I
would come back and coach this team and I
thought it was my responsibility, plus I
wanted to do it and try to defend the title
with a bunch of guys that I picked. I can't
promise my owner or myself that I'm going to
do it longer." -- Pat Riley |
|
2.
Washington Wizards |
|
Projected finish: 45-37, second |
 2006-07
theme: Step it up. It won't be good enough
for the Wizards to simply make the playoffs.
It will be a bad sign if this team is closer
to missing the playoffs than it is winning
the division. |
| Early forecast:
Washington plays its first nine games
against Eastern Conference competition,
giving it an opportunity to get a jump on
gaining separation. |
| Haunting reality:
Centers Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas
aren't offensive threats, so the Wizards
will be overly reliant on jump shooting.
Making matters worse, offseason acquisition
Darius Songaila hasn't gotten a chance to
get properly integrated due to a sore back. |
| Saving grace:
Caron Butler enters his second season with
the team and is poised for a breakout year.
The talented forward effectively replaced
Larry Hughes' production while providing
toughness the Wizards badly needed. |
| X-factor: DeShawn
Stevenson was one of the offseason's most
unheralded bargain pickups. He's slated to
start at shooting guard, thanks to a
defensive presence the Wizards are excited
about. Anything he adds offensively is
gravy. |
 |
|
Gilbert Arenas |
Likely rotation:
Gilbert Arenas wants to be a more complete
player at the point, and will be teamed with
Stevenson in the backcourt. Antonio Daniels
backs up both spots and will be a valuable
contributor. Butler and Antawn Jamison are
the starting forwards, backed up by Jarvis
Hayes and Songaila, both injury concerns.
Thomas and Haywood are the centers. |
| Four-casting:
Arenas will carry this team through poor
stretches with unconscious shooting streak.
Butler will become a more valuable
contributor than former All-Star Jamison.
Andray Blatche will be challenged to play a
larger role in the team's rotation. The
Wizards will fail to make the second round
of the playoffs. |
| Coach-speak: "It's
a fine line from winning and losing, it's a
fine line from going to the playoffs to
making the second round. We had lofty
expectations obviously and we have to
understand that we got to defend better and
that each possession counts and that we
can't take plays off and we have to sustain
a level of intensity ... sustain a defensive
mind-set throughout the season if we're
going to have a shot at going to the second
or third round." -- Eddie Jordan |
|
3.
Orlando Magic |
|
Projected finish: 38-44 |
 2006-07
theme: Shoot for the stars. No, the Magic
won't win the NBA championship like Dwight
Howard predicted, but it is a good sign that
the team already has that mind-set. |
| Early forecast:
The Magic will host four of their first five
games, including a Nov. 6 game against the
Wizards that will allow them to make an
impression against the team most feel
they'll be chasing in the division. |
| Haunting reality:
Darko Milicic and Dwight Howard still have
growing pains ahead of them, but the Magic
don't have many other options. Tony Battie,
Pat Garrity and Bo Outlaw are past their
prime. |
| Saving grace:
Grant Hill appears to be healthier than he's
been since coming to the Magic. His locker
room presence has been invaluable, but now
that he'll be able to produce on the floor,
his influence will be even stronger. |
| X-factor: Can J.J.
Redick shake off the back and foot problems
to become a valuable contributor as a
rookie? The Magic were counting on his
perimeter production to stretch defenses and
help the other guys get loose. |
 |
|
Darko Milicic |
Likely rotation:
Jameer Nelson has taken it upon himself to
lead the Magic, taking responsibility for
his actions as a leader and staking claim to
the point. He has plenty of backup with
Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling on board.
Hill is slated to start at shooting guard if
he's healthy, with Redick also seeing time.
Hedo Turkoglu will start at small forward,
backed by athletic wing Trevor Ariza. Up
front, Howard, Milicic and Battie will
anchor the post. |
| Four-casting:
Howard will lead the league in rebounding.
Howard will make his first All-Star
appearance. Jameer Nelson will emerge as one
of the league's most productive playmakers.
Hill will appear in more than 65 games. |
| Coach-speak: "We
had a very business-like approach and guys
were really concentrating on getting a good
camp out of it. The downside of everything
was we just had so many little nagging
injuries. We had as many as seven players
and four starters out for a decent
percentage of time, and that's retarded our
progress a little bit." -- Brian Hill |
|
4.
Atlanta Hawks |
|
Projected finish: 30-52 |
 2006-07
theme: Making the pieces fit. With Al
Harrington gone, the Hawks have the core in
place that they envision will lift them out
of their misery. |
| Early forecast:
The Hawks look poised to avoid the type of
disastrous start that befell them last
season, when they lost 16 of their first 18.
Although point guard Speedy Claxton is out
with a broken hand, the team is in a much
better place than they were a year ago. |
| Haunting reality:
There are no polished forwards on the
roster. Josh Smith comes closest, but he's
still only 20 and working on his overall
game. Marvin Williams, also 20, will start
alongside him. |
| Saving grace: Joe
Johnson is a legitimate All-Star-caliber
player and has been well worth the Hawks'
investment. The versatile guard will keep
Atlanta in games and make his young
teammates better. |
| X-factor: Williams
dominated summer league competition and
doesn't look or act like a rookie anymore. I
felt he was the top player available in a
2005 draft, so if he matures faster than
expected, the Hawks could actually challenge
for a playoff spot. |
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|
Joe Johnson |
Likely rotation: Once
Claxton returns, this will be his team to
run. His backups include veteran Tyronn Lue
and mainstay Royal Ivey, who will fill in
while Speedy heals. Johnson will gobble up
backcourt minutes, relieved by shooting
specialist Salim Stoudamire and wing Josh
Childress. Williams and Smith are the
forwards, backed up by the versatile
Childress and rookie Shelden Williams, who
is being counted on to do the little things
like set picks, rebound and defend. He can
also swing over to the post and relieve Zaza
Pachulia and Lorenzen Wright. |
| Four-casting:
Johnson's push for an All-Star berth will be
hindered by his team's poor record; he'll
call Michael Redd for moral support. Shelden
Williams will be a big hit by delivering
exactly what's promised. Marvin Williams
will be among the NBA's most improved
players. Josh Smith will finish among the
top five in the league in blocked shots. |
| Coach-speak: "He's
definitely matured from the first couple of
seasons we've had him. I thought this summer
was huge for him, because he extended
himself in terms of working out more and he
came to camp in great shape. So right now,
we're playing him in a couple of positions.
At the 4-spot, he comfortably fits right in,
I think. He's picked up a little more weight
coming into this season and we think, as a
team, that he’s grown a little bit, so,
we're very pleased with his progress and
we've got to continue to push him to get
better as a player and help us win." -- Mike
Woodson, on Josh Smith |
|
5.
Charlotte Bobcats |
|
Projected finish: 23-59 |
 2006-07
theme: Continue the ascent. Despite the lack
of on-court results, the Bobcats are doing
it the right way, spending frugally and
building through the draft. While their goal
of making the playoffs might elude them,
this will be a productive year if everyone
can stay healthy and gain experience. |
| Early forecast:
The Bobcats can get fans excited early if
they can capitalize on a manageable early
schedule. Charlotte opens with four of six
at home, starting with a Pacers team they
can run with. If Adam Morrison comes out of
the gate firing, the Bobcats will be in
business. |
| Haunting reality:
The team is looking for Morrison to be its
top scoring threat from the perimeter. While
the rookie may very well be special, relying
heavily on a first-year player is never the
ideal. |
| Saving grace:
Emeka Okafor and Sean May seem to complement
each other well on paper. Watching them
develop after having their partnership cut
short last year will be a large part of the
equation. |
| X-factor: Raymond
Felton showed flashes of being a special
player late in his rookie season. If he can
keep it up and become the face of this
franchise, the Bobcats will be stoked. It's
hard to find a point guard you can build
around. |
 |
|
Emeka Okafor |
Likely rotation:
Felton will run the show and occasionally
move off the ball to allow capable backup
Brevin Knight to make his contributions.
Blossoming wing Gerald Wallace will swing
between off guard and small forward,
depending on whether Knight or Morrison is
in the game. Okafor, May and Primoz Brezec
are the cornerstones inside and worth well
developing. Veterans Othella Harrington and
Melvin Ely will supply depth. |
| Four-casting:
Okafor will get off to a slow start in
trying to get his rhythm back, following his
injury-riddled sophomore season. A trimmer
May will make an impact and stay healthy,
avoiding the bust label. Felton will
continue making progress and prove he's one
of the top additions from the 2005 draft.
Bernie Bickerstaff will head upstairs
following the season, bringing in a new
coach to take the team to the next level. |
| Coach-speak: "He's
been really terrific. You know the thing
that has been really impressive is how he
has picked everything up. Like I said,
coming from a situation where his dad was a
coach, and he had those three years on the
collegiate level. ... He's been a good
teammate and the guy can score in a lot of
different ways. What I think he's learning
how to do is how they set screens in the
NBA. It's the one problem that rookies have
coming into this league. They have to be
able to learn how to negotiate the screens."
-- Bernie Bickerstaff, on Adam Morrison. |
