|
1. San
Antonio Spurs |
|
Projected finish: 60-22 |
 2006-07
theme: Get back in the saddle. If not for a
bad foul at the end of regulation in Game 7
of the West finals, the Spurs might be
hoisting up another banner. They're out for
redemption. |
| Early forecast:
The NBA did San Antonio no favors, pitting
the Spurs against Dallas, Cleveland and
Phoenix in the season's opening week. They
do have the Knicks twice in the first two
weeks though, proof that things sometimes
even out. |
| Haunting reality:
Tim Duncan says his plantar fasciitis is no
longer a problem and feels rested and
healthy. Unfortunately, he's not getting
younger and any ailment could linger and
become an issue. |
| Saving grace: Last
season, Tony Parker helped carry this team
to the best record in the West despite his
teammates' injuries. He has joined the
league's elite point guards and shows no
signs of slowing down. If he develops a
consistent jumper, his speed makes him
unstoppable. |
| X-factor: The
Spurs figure to go small quite a bit, but it
would really benefit them if either
Francisco Elson or Jackie Butler develops
into a dependable option at center. You
don't want Duncan's energy sapped by having
to defend larger fives, and current starter
Fabricio Oberto is undersized. |
 |
|
Tim Duncan |
Likely rotation:
Parker and Manu Ginobili form a familiar
backcourt, with Michael Finley emerging as a
top reserve on the wing. He'll get major
minutes. Brent Barry will also see
substantial time, with Jacque Vaughn always
an option when the Spurs want to go to a
traditional backup point. Defensive
nightmare Bruce Bowen is back at small
forward. Robert Horry can spend time there,
as can veterans Eric Williams and Matt
Bonner. Inside, the Spurs field Duncan and
Oberto, Elson and Butler. |
| Four-casting: The
Spurs will be the only team in the league to
break the 60-win plateau. An NBA All-Star
berth comes down to Parker and Ginobili.
Bonner, groomed as Horry's eventual
replacement, will catch on quickly. Duncan
will again return to First-team All-NBA
status. |
| Coach-speak: "I
think we are as good as anybody, but in the
end it takes a lot of things to win a
championship. Good fortune is important,
getting some good calls here and there,
being on a run, having a player who is
playing great. We feel good about our team.
We have probably become a little bit more
athletic inside, but other than that we are
pretty much the same." -- Gregg Popovich. |
|
2.
Dallas Mavericks |
|
Projected finish: 58-24 |
 2006-07
theme: Finish what they started. Last year's
NBA Finals loss will sting forever, but any
regression will make what happened far
worse. The Mavericks want to avoid feeling
like they let a fleeting opportunity go to
waste. |
| Early forecast:
The Mavericks' first five games have to be
the NBA's toughest. Spread around Don
Nelson's return with the Warriors are road
games against the Rockets, Clippers and
Suns. Dallas opens at home with the Spurs. |
| Haunting reality:
Everything came together so nicely for the
Mavs last season that one wonders whether
they did squander their chance. While Josh
Howard and Devin Harris should be better,
last year's Mavericks had a unique chemistry
that is often difficult to duplicate. |
| Saving grace: Dirk
Nowitzki feels he can still get better,
working on his effectiveness around the
basket and becoming more proficient at
getting teammates involved. |
| X-factor: Harris
offered a great change of pace with his
speed, but must develop his point guard
skills and become a veteran to take the
reigns of this championship-caliber team.
Anthony Johnson was brought in as a safety
net in case Harris falls short of what Avery
Johnson desires. If he continues to develop,
he could be a standout defender and creator. |
| Likely rotation:
Jason Terry and Harris should again form the
starting backcourt, but there are plenty of
alternatives behind him. Johnson arrives
from the Pacers, while superb veteran sixth
man Jerry Stackhouse is available. Howard,
the small forward, is a future All-Star.
Greg Buckner and Devean George arrive to add
toughness as backups behind him, while
Austin Croshere will reprise Keith Van
Horn's role behind Nowitzki. Dallas'
three-headed center (DeSagana Diop, Erick
Dampier and D.J. Mbenga) is also back. |
| Four-casting: The
Howard-Scottie Pippen comparisons will
intensify. Dirk Nowitzki will again find the
MVP award elusive. Mark Cuban will launch a
year-long protest against the basketball,
passing dull moments by berating the
officiating. Harris' defense will become a
weapon now that he seems to have found his
footing in the league. |
| Coach-speak: "We
want Dirk to continue to improve on the
defense end and do a better job of
on-the-ball guarding and help-side defense,
continue to rebound. Offensively, we want
him to try and get a few more offensive
rebounds this year. He's a good rebounder
and we just need more activity with
offensive rebounds and try to improve in the
area of getting assists and making his
teammates better." -- Avery Johnson. |
|
3.
Houston Rockets |
|
Projected finish: 50-32 |
 2006-07
theme: Erase all memories of 2005-06. The
Rockets were jinxed by injuries and quickly
became the league's biggest disappointment.
What? Huh? What season? Being able to
plausibly deny it ever happened is a good
place for the team to start. |
| Early forecast:
The Rockets will be on the road often in the
season's first week, but at least the
competition isn't all that impressive. Games
in Utah, Oklahoma City, Memphis and
Milwaukee are all winnable. |
| Haunting reality:
Every time McGrady winces, Rockets fans'
hearts will stop. Unfortunately, odds are
good he'll miss at least a stretch of
action. It's going to be important for his
teammates not fold like a futon when that
happens. |
| Saving grace: Yao
really seemed to turn the corner before he
broke his foot at the end of last season. If
he picks up where he left off, Houston will
have the most feared legitimate center in
the Western Conference anchoring the post.
To do that, he has to keep the intensity
level on high. |
| X-factor: Bonzi
Wells could provide a serious boost for a
team that can use all the scrappy, rugged
scorers it can get its hands on. Wells
dominated the Spurs last postseason and
feels he's got something to prove after
pricing himself out of everybody's range as
a free agent. |
| Likely rotation:
Rafer Alston will run the point after a
decent first run at the position last
season. The Rockets are still hoping Bobby
Sura will return from injury and make a
contribution at some point, but in the
meantime John Lucas III is at their
disposal. Between McGrady, Wells, Luther
Head and Kirk Snyder, the Rockets are set on
the wing. Shane Battier can swing over there
as well, but might spend most of his time as
the starting power forward. It's very likely
he'll finish games at that spot. Juwan
Howard will back up Battier and Yao, with
Dikembe Mutombo making his usual impact
defensively. |
| Four-casting:
Battier's effectiveness swinging between
positions will play a critical role in
Houston's success. Yao's toe problems won't
be an issue. McGrady's back problems will
be. Rookie Steve Novak will remind Houston
of former fan favorite Matt Bullard. |
| Coach-speak: "We
just plan on trying to put as much into the
year as we can and then how we go about the
process will determine the results and we'll
live with those results as long as we put as
much as we can into the process." -- Jeff
Van Gundy. |
|
4. New
Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets |
|
Projected finish: 35-47 |
 2006-07
theme: Poise and precision. Last year's
Hornets ran out of steam down the stretch,
but this year's version features impact
newcomers and a more polished Chris Paul.
They'll contend for a playoff berth. |
| Early forecast:
The Hornets will be playing in a different
city in each of their first seven games.
Five will be in hostile arenas, while the
Nov. 5 home opener finds them back at New
Orleans Arena against the Rockets. Oklahoma
City gets their first glimpse at its adopted
team two nights later against the Warriors. |
| Haunting reality:
This team is much better off with another
lottery pick than making the postseason and
being served up as first-round roadkill. |
| Saving grace:
Between Paul, David West, Tyson Chandler and
the recently signed Peja Stojakovic, the
Hornets can be secure that their nucleus
will grow together. |
| X-factor: Desmond
Mason wants to make up for what was
essentially a lost first season. Despite
being an undersized small forward, his
ability to post up wings will make him a
vital part of the Hornets offense given
their lack of a proficient inside scorer. |
| Likely rotation:
Paul will be on the court more often than
not, often paired with veteran backup Bobby
Jackson. Stojakovic will be the starting off
guard but will defend small forwards. Mason
will be the three and defend twos. Rasual
Butler, Jannero Pargo and the versatile
Linton Johnson will see minutes behind them.
In back of West and Chandler will be veteran
Marc Jackson and, potentially, rookies
Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons. |
| Four-casting: Paul
will lead the league in triple-doubles and
push for an All-Star berth. Chandler will
finally start living up to his potential by
avoiding unnecessary foul trouble. The lack
of veteran backups in the post will be an
Achilles' heel. Stojakovic will spend at
least 10 games on the injured list. |
| Coach-speak:
"Tyson is a very defensive-minded person. He
understand that that's what gets you to the
playoffs and that's what makes teams
championship teams. He's going to be a guy
that we rely a lot on as far as anchoring
the defense back there and I think he's up
for the challenge." -- Byron Scott. |
|
5.
Memphis Grizzlies |
|
Projected finish: 22-60 |
 2006-07
theme: Make the best of it. An injury to Pau
Gasol threatens to compromise the entire
season if the supporting cast doesn't step
up in his absence. |
| Early forecast:
Memphis was made up of the walking wounded
late in the preseason, so it might have
problems getting started. If the Grizzlies
don't win one of their opening two home
games (New York and Charlotte), there's a
good chance they start off 0-9. |
| Haunting reality:
The Grizzlies' returning forwards are either
too young or not dynamic enough to fill
Gasol's void. Getting pressed into duty
might aid their development, but there are
going to be a lot of ugly nights. |
| Saving grace:
Rookie Rudy Gay gets to have his ups and
downs in a low-pressure atmosphere where
he'll have an opportunity to get a lot of
shots. In a rebuilding year, you can do far
worse for entertainment value. |
| X-factor: Mike
Miller knows he's being counted on to
provide more. He's fully mature and has been
around the block a few times, so if he can
stay healthy and consistently play to his
potential, he can solidify himself as a
franchise cornerstone. |
| Likely rotation:
Damon Stoudamire had a nice start to his
tenure in Memphis before rupturing his right
patella tendon last season. He's fully
recovered and will start at the point ahead
of Chucky Atkins and promising rookie Kyle
Lowry. Miller, Gay, Eddie Jones and Dahntay
Jones man the wings. Until Gasol returns,
the Grizzlies will task Brian Cardinal,
Stromile Swift, Lawrence Roberts and Hakim
Warrick as forwards. Jake Tsakalidis is
available as a legitimate center. |
| Four-casting: Gay
will make the All-Rookie First Team.
Roberts' defense and proficiency on the
boards will make him invaluable. Gasol's
return will help the Grizzlies avoid
finishing with the league's worst record.
Eddie Jones will lose minutes as part of the
team's youth movement. |
| Coach-speak:
"Those first eight or nine road games that
they gave us. They picked a really good
group of teams. We're hoping that we can
hang in there. We've got to steal some wins
there is no question. It's going to be hard
to tell right now how good we can be without
Pau because we've had so many other guys out
and haven't played yet for us or sparingly
before they got hurt." -- Mike Fratello. |
